The Road to 272 Bets stumbled out of the gates to begin 2024, but we thrive when we face adversity. We've responded in a big way, posting back-to-back profitable weeks including a record of 8-6 (+1.54 units) in Week 5 to bring us back to 39-38-1 (-0.64 units).
We march on in Week 6 as we aim to post our third straight profitable week. It's a strong slate of games ahead of us and now that we're officially in the meat of the season, it's time for us to lock in.
There are four teams on BYE again this week so we have 14 games to watch and bet on. If you want to listen to the audio version of this, including some more in-depth analysis, you can find it wherever you get your podcasts.
As always, I'll follow the rules and guidelines that I laid out ahead of the opening week. It's time to dive into my best bet for every single Week 6 game.
Teams on a BYE in Week 6:ChiefsRamsDolphinsVikingsNFL Week 6 Best Bets for Every Game49ers vs. Seahawks Prediction
This year's version of the San Francisco 49ers isn't the same as last year's and we should start treating them that way. They may figure things out as the season progresses, but they have some issues, specifically on defense. They're 21st in the league in opponent yards per play (5.6) and 12th in opponent EPA per play, well below where the Seahawks rank in those categories.
Seattle runs at the lowest rate in the NFL but yet the Seahawks rank seventh in yards per carry averaging 5.0 yards per rush. I expect them to switch things up and start relying on their run game a little bit more, which will be effective against a 49ers' defense that ranks 26th in opponent rush success rate.
On a short week at home, I'm going to take the 3.5 points with the Seahawks as we continue to wait for the 49ers to find their stride.
Pick: Seahawks +3.5 (-115)
Jaguars vs. Bears Prediction
All the focus around the Jacksonville Jaguars this season has been Trevor Lawrence and their offense, but nobody has recognized the real issue with this team; their defense. The Jaguars are allowing the second most yards per play at 6.0 while also ranking 31st in opponent EPA/play.
Most notably, the Bears' offense with Caleb Williams is starting to hit their stride and now they get to face the worst passing defense in the league. The Jaguars rank dead last in the NFL in opponent dropback EPA. Meanwhile, the Bears lead the entire league in that stat.
Considering the Jaguars rank eighth in passing play percentage (61.46%), the Bears' secondary is going to cause a ton of issues for Lawrence and their receiving core. Even if they do find something, they'll need to score in bunches to survivor poor defensive play and win this game.
Stylistically, this is a dream matchup for Chicago.
Pick: Bears -1.5 (-115)
Commanders vs. Ravens Prediction
This game is going to be by far the toughest challenge for the Commanders so far this season but while their first five opponents haven't exactly been elite teams, the Washington offense has passed every test with flying colors. They lead the entire league in overall EPA/Play, including Dropback EPA and Rush EPA. They also rank fifth in success rate and third in yards per carry (6.3).
With that being said, their defense has struggled to start the year ranking in the bottom 10 of each of the areas mentioned above, making it tough to back them against a team like the Ravens who can match them offensively, but have a much better defense to back them up. The Ravens lead the NFL in yards per play (6.8).
While the Ravens defense deserves praise for being the best run defense in the NFL, they have been susceptible through the air allowing 7.5 yards per pass attempt. If the Commanders can trust their rookie quarterback to air the ball out and he delivers, Washington is going to be in this game.
The thing that's most clear in this game is this is a meeting between arguably the two best offenses in the NFL. The best thing to do is just to bet the OVER and root for an offensive shootout between two fun teams.
Pick: OVER 52.5 (-105)
Texans vs. Patriots Prediction
There are teams in the NFL that the Patriots can hang with. Those who have a run-first offense who also struggle to pressure the passer defensively. Unfortunately for New England, the Texans are quite the opposite of that.
The Texans' biggest strength on offense is their ability to air the ball out, which lines up well with the Patriots' biggest defensive weakness. New England ranks 26th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.2) and 23rd in opponent Dropback EPA.
Offensively, the Patriots have the worst pressure rate in the NFL. Jacoby Brissett has been pressured on 31.4% of his dropbacks. That's terrible news for him considering the Texans rank sixth in sack percentage, sacking opposing quarterbacks on 9.26% of their dropbacks.
This is a terrible matchup for an already bad Patriots team. I'll lay the touchdown with the Texans.
Pick: Texans -7 (-105)
Browns vs. Eagles Prediction
I'm done being cute by betting on the Browns because they're in a "buy low" spot. I'm officially making the declaration that as long as Deshaun Watson is their starting quarterback, I'm not touching this team with a 10-foot pole. The Browns' offense has been historically bad, averaging only 3.8 yards per play, the worst mark in the NFL by half a yard. They're also last in both EPA/Play and Success Rate. There's nothing the Browns do at an average level on offense.
The Eagles, fresh off a BYE week with A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith back in their lineup, may only need to score 20 points to cover this 8.5-point spread.
Pick: Eagles -8.5 (-110)
Colts vs. Titans Prediction
If I knew Joe Flacco was starting, I'd likely take the Colts at -1. Unfortunately, as of Monday night, we don't know who's going to be the start for the Colts in Week 6. For that reason, I'm just going to bet the UNDER based on how the Titans look as a team.
Take the Washington Commanders and flip it. In fact, if you had the Commanders' offense but the Titans defense on one team, they might just go undefeated.
The Titans' defense ranks third in opponent yards per play (4.4), sixth in opponent EPA/Play, and first in opponent success rate. Offensively, they're 30th, 30th, and 27th in those three stats. This team is simply the case of a bottom-five offense and a top-five defense. There are few games they play in this season where the total should be as high as 43.5.
Pick: Colts vs. Titans UNDER 43.5 (-114)
Cardinals vs. Packers Prediction
The Cardinals and Packers are extremely similar offensively. They both can run the ball effectively enough but are stronger when airing it out. When they're both firing on all cylinders, they are two of the best explosive offenses in the NFL.
Where the difference is between these two teams is their defenses. The Packers' defense certainly isn't elite, ranking around the middle of the pack in both metrics, but the Cardinals' defense is abysmal. They're 26th in opponent EPA/Play and dead last in opponent success rate. Specifically, their secondary is especially weak, allowing 7.7 yards per pass attempt this season, the fourth-highest mark.
Jordan Love and company is going to be able to carve up this defense and I'm not so sure Kyler Murray and the Cardinals' offense can keep pace at Lambeau Field.
Pick: Packers -5 (-110)
Buccaneers vs. Saints Prediction
As of writing this article, Derek Carr's injury status is still unknown. With that being said, oddsmakers are preparing for him to miss the Saints' Week 6 game against the Buccaneers. New Orleans was a 2.5-point favorite before their Monday night game against the Chiefs and then the line reopened at Buccaneers -2 on Tuesday morning.
If Jake Haener starts for the Saints, this bet is a no-brainer. He'll be making his NFL debut against a solid team in Tampa Bay. If Carr gets the start, this bet still has a chance. The Saints' offense has faltered after the first two weeks of the season and both the Eagles and Chiefs have shown that if you take away their deep shot, there's not much else they have to offer.
The Buccaneers' offense has been firing on all cylinders and now that they're coming off a mini-BYE week, they should be well prepared for this NFC South showdown.
Steelers vs. Raiders Prediction
It's hard for me to lay a field goal on a Steelers team that is tough to trust offensively. They rank inside the bottom 10 in virtually every single metric and overall, this team ranks 23rd in Net Yards per Play (-0.3), only two spots above the Raiders (-0.5).
The Steelers' defense isn't as dominant as the public discourse would make you think they are. They're just 21st in opponent yards per play (6.8) and 17th in opponent success rate. They do a fantastic job of stopping the run, but the Raiders don't rely on their run game to begin with. The Raiders' defense outranks the Steelers in opponent Dropback EPA, 13th to 15th.
With the spread at a field goal, I'll take the points with the Raiders on their home field.
Pick: Raiders +3 (-110)
Chargers vs. Broncos Prediction
We've only seen the Chargers in four games but I have some concerns about this team. They're allowing the third-highest pressure rate in the NFL with Herbert being pressured on 26.0% of dropbacks. Joe Alt will likely be back for them but Rashawn Slater is still questionable. Now they have to take on a Broncos defense that is not only dominant in the secondary, but they have the seventh highest pressure rate at 25.1%. They're also third in sack percentage, taking down the opposing quarterback on 10.8% of their dropbacks.
While people are pointing to the Broncos' offense as incompetent, it's worth noting these two offenses are 25th and 26th in EPA/Play. The Los Angeles offense isn't that much better than Denver's.
I've bet on the Broncos almost every week this season and I'm going to continue to lean on their defense and Bo Nix, who has looked better the past few weeks.
Pick: Broncos +140
Lions vs. Cowboys Prediction
The Lions may just run the ball every single play and steamroll this Cowboys defense. Dallas ranks dead last in the NFL in opponent rush EPA and 29th in opponent rush success rate. Now they face a Lions offense that's third in rush EPA and second in rush success rate. The Ravens were able to average 6.1 yards per carry against the Cowboys earlier this season and I expect a similar output by the Lions.
Detroit's offensive line will also be able to nullify the Cowboys' best defensive weapon, their pass rush. The Lions allow a sack on just 5.26% of Jared Goff dropbacks, the sixth-lowest sack rate in the NFL.
I'll back Detroit to cover this field goal spread off their BYE.
Pick: Lions -3 (-115)
Falcons vs. Panthers
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a gauntlet of teams to start the season. Four of their first five opponents were in the playoffs last season and the fifth, the Saints, were just on the outside looking in. Despite the tough start to their schedule, they're 3-2 and sit second in the league in Net Yards per Play at +0.9.
Meanwhile, Andy Dalton and the Carolina Panthers offense has turned into a pumpkin after looking like a solid unit after making the switch at quarterback. Carolina is now 29th in Net Yards per Play (-1), 27th in EPA/Play, and 29th in Opponent EPA/Play. They remain one of the worst teams in the league.
The Falcons have some issues on third down that they need to figure out, both offensively and defensively, but they're starting to hit their stride and are well poised to show the world what they're made enough against by far the weakest opponent they've faced this season.
Pick: Falcons -6 (-110)
Bengals vs. Giants Prediction
The New York Giants' biggest weapon is their pass rush, which leads the NFL in sack percentage (12.29%). Fortunately for the Bengals, their offensive line has been strong this season, sporting the lowest QB pressure rate at 10.4%.
While their defense has been horrific, the Bengals' offense has been a top-five unit in the NFL, most notably ranking third in EPA/Play.
Cincinnati is going to struggle when they play against great offenses like we've already seen against the Chiefs, Commanders, and Ravens, but they can win and cover the spread when they get to take on subpar offenses like the Giants. I'm ready to bet on the Bengals for the first time this season.
Pick: Bengals -3.5 (-105)
Bills vs. Jets Prediction
The Jets' defense is one of the most elite units in the NFL, but they can be had on the ground. They've allowed 4.2 yards per carry this season while ranking 15th in opponent Rush EPA and 25th in opponent Rush Success Rate. That's going to bode well for the Bills, who are at their best when they're able to run the ball effectively.
Then there's the topic of the Jets offense. Despite having a four-time MVP at quarterback, their offense has been almost just as bad as they were last year with the likes of Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, and Trevor Siemian.
They're averaging only 0.4 more yards per play and 0.3 more yards per throw this season compared to last year.
The Bills defense has been solid this year and I foresee them giving Rodgers fits as he comes to the term with the fact he's a shell of his former self.
The market is still too high on the Jets. I'll fade them on Monday Night Football.
Pick: Bills -2.5 (-110)
