I’m hesitant to say anyone is “flying up draft boards” because it just doesn’t happen that way. More often than not, it’s the media catching up to what teams think of guys, and the conversation through the public shifting accordingly.
So take what I’m going to say here with that grain of salt.
Washington’s Heisman finalist’s stock is, indeed, on a bit of an upswing. He had a nice pro day, no doubt. The 40-yard dash in the 4.5s, especially given the injury questions, helped, and Penix also showed, in the words of one AFC college scouting director, “He has a strong arm.” “The arm talent, it’s impressive,” says an NFC exec. “Combined with running faster than most thought, he just had a good day.” On top of that, he’s come off as humble, confident, and introspective in his meetings with teams, after a six-year, two-school college career.
But, as much as anything, what’s really helped is simpler than all that—the coaches are now involved. Because in my early rounds of phone calls, it’s pretty apparent to me that coaches are higher on Penix than scouts. And that’s significant, because among scouts, Penix has never been seen quite the way the general public thought the NFL was seeing him back in the fall when he was lighting up the Pac-12.
“Penix is my No. 2 guy,” says one offensive coach from an AFC team. “I love Penix. He's a stud, a born leader, calm and collected and in a genuine way. He’s a baller. He turns it loose, can throw it into tight windows. He stands in the pocket, lets plays develop, takes hits, throws it down the field. He’s just a winner.”
So after talking to a few coaches who raved about Penix—one said he thinks he throws it a little like Matthew Stafford—I checked in with a couple of people to see what would lead to the disconnect here between the teachers and evaluators.
The strongest answer I got was easy to understand. Simply put, Penix has things that you can’t coach. The deep-ball accuracy is off the charts. He throws with anticipation. And he’s tough as nails and very football smart. So where a scout looks at sometimes-scattershot accuracy underneath, and some issues with movement through the pocket, the coach looks at what he can coach, and what he can’t, and believes he can fill in the blanks thereafter.
Along those lines, I did have one NFC executive call Penix a “three-point shooter” before the Washington-Michigan title game. Two others I talked to after that agreed with the assessment. Then, I watched the championship games, and saw Wolverines DC Jesse Minter dare Penix to beat Michigan underneath, and go on 10- and 12- and 14-play drives, and Washington couldn’t pull it off.
The optimist (coaches) would say that can be fixed with some mechanical work. The pessimist (scouts, in this case) would say he’s been in school for six years, and had great coaching, so it’s not like folks haven’t been trying.
And so moreso than other quarterbacks, this is where I think private workouts will be important for Penix, giving those coaches the chance to go hands-on with him. The Vikings sent a large contingent, and put the quarterback through a rigorous workout of nearly 100 throws. The Falcons sent eight guys, including GM Terry Fontenot, coach Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson, cross country for their own lengthy workout.
Put it all together, and I think how Penix’s fate plays out should be one of the more intriguing storylines of draft weekend.
