People often say that football in the NFL doesn’t truly start until Thanksgiving week. Perhaps that’s true because many offenses appeared to be in sync during Week 12.
The Eagles and Bills delivered a thrilling overtime game that saw a combined total of 71 points. Those were two of seven teams that cracked 30 points last week, including the 45 points the Cowboys dropped on the Commanders on Thanksgiving.
Also, my tactic of going with five under bets last week failed miserably. Only the Panthers and Titans came through for me. You might have missed that snoozefest that only had 27 total points combined. And don’t you dare bring up the Giants’ 10–7 victory over the Patriots. There’s nothing dull about Giants backup quarterback Tommy DeVito. Capeesh?
But I have taken notice of the uptick in scoring the past few weeks. Here are the five best over/under bets for Week 13 (all total numbers are from SI Sportsbook).
Colorado, Michigan and Virginia Readers: Get up to $100 from SI Sportsbook
Bet $5 on DraftKings and get $200 in Bonus Bets if not in those states
1. Broncos (6–5) at Texans (6–5)
The Broncos’ defense has come a long way since their miserable September, which included the 70–20 defeat to the Dolphins. Denver has turned into a dominant defensive unit during its five-game winning streak. They have stifled Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in recent weeks. Jordan Love, Josh Dobbs and the Browns’ quarterbacks Dorian Thompson-Robinson and PJ Walker also struggled against the Broncos. Now Denver gets to face rookie sensation C.J. Stroud and his Texans’ offense. Stroud has cooled off the past two weeks, with the Texans scoring 21 points against the Cardinals and Jaguars. Houston could have trouble against a Broncos’ defense that has generated a league-high 22 takeaways. As for the Broncos’ offense, Russell Wilson has played well, but they’re far from a scoring machine. I do, however, have some concerns about the Texans’ suspect defense.
2. Dolphins (8–3) at Commanders (4–8)Over/Under: 49.5Prediction: Over
This might be the week the Dolphins regain their top form offensively. Miami has struggled a bit since scoring 42 points on the Panthers in Week 6. The Dolphins scored 34 points against the Jets last week, but six points came off a defensive touchdown return. Expect a get-right game for the Dolphins because the Commanders have struggled to rush the quarterback since trading Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Washington also has a poor secondary, which was evident by Dak Prescott picking them apart last week in the 45–10 blowout loss. The Commanders could also do their part for this over bet because Sam Howell tends to go on hot streaks, especially in the second half of games. A 40-burger from Miami with a few garbage-time touchdowns from Washington should do the trick for this over bet.
3. Lions (8–3) at Saints (5–6)Over/Under: 45.5Prediction: Over
The Saints’ defense has gone the opposite direction of the Broncos. After a strong start to the season, New Orleans has allowed opponents to record more than 330 yards in five consecutive games, including a season-high 396 yards in the loss to the Falcons last week. Atlanta gashed New Orleans on the ground with 228 yards. Now the Saints will get to face the Lions’ rushing attack duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. But points matter more than yards allowed here, and the Saints have also given up many touchdowns in the past five weeks. Jaguars, Colts, Vikings and Falcons all scored 24 points or more on the Saints in four of the past five games—they held the Bears to 17 points in Week 9. As for the Lions, expect them to shore up their offensive line after a few down weeks, especially in last week’s upset loss to the Packers. Jared Goff tends to deliver touchdowns when he’s well protected. Detroit’s defense hasn’t been very good the past six weeks. Derek Carr and his offense will also get their points.
4. Browns (7–4) at Rams (5–6)Over/Under: 39.5Prediction: Under
I jinxed myself last week after announcing that the under bets have been hitting in games involving the Rams. Los Angeles erupted for 37 points in Kyren Williams’s return during the dominant win against the Cardinals. The Rams are certainly much better offensively with Williams running the football, but this under bet is more about the Browns and their lack of offense. The Browns have struggled to score points regardless of the quarterback, but it’s been an uphill battle since Deshaun Watson was ruled out for the remainder of the season due to injury. Cleveland entered Week 13 not knowing who will be the starting quarterback in L.A. because Dorian Thompson-Robinson sustained a head injury and PJ Walker has had poor performances this season. The Browns also have the option of turning to veteran Joe Flacco, but that probably won’t lead to many points against an underrated Rams’ defense. This will probably be a low-scoring affair because the Rams have to deal with the Browns’ standout defense. But make sure to keep an eye on Myles Garrett’s injury status throughout the practice week.
5. Chiefs (8–3) at Packers (5–6)Over/Under: 41.5Prediction: Over
It appears the Chiefs’ offense has finally woken up. Mahomes and Travis Kelce received plenty of help in last week’s 31–17 victory against the Raiders. Rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice and running back Isiah Pacheco were instrumental in the Chiefs erasing an early 14–0 deficit against the Raiders. Perhaps Kansas City’s momentum will carry into a tough road environment in Green Bay. Love has a tough task of generating points against the Chiefs’ stout defense, which is only allowing 16.5 points per game. But Love has flourished during the Packers’ two-game winning streak, including throwing for 322 yards against the Chargers in Week 11. Love has also done a good job of distributing the ball to a handful of playmakers, including Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed.
Colorado, Michigan and Virginia Readers: Get up to $100 from SI Sportsbook
Bet $5 on FanDuel and get $200 in Bonus Bets if not in those states
