The CBA, in taking a sledgehammer to the rookie pay system, does not allow drafted players to renegotiate with their teams until they have completed three seasons in the league. This has given teams a built-in excuse to leverage the fixed and reasonable cost of starting quarterbacks in rookie contracts for extraordinary value. The list of teams taking advantage in recent years includes the Seahawks (Russell Wilson), Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes), Cowboys (Dak Prescott), Texans (Deshaun Watson) and, more recently, the Bills (Josh Allen), Browns (Baker Mayfield) and Ravens (Lamar Jackson). Those three players have been ripe for extensions since February; one of them just happened.
The Allen deal
The first shoe dropped among the trio, with Allen extending his contract with the Bills for six years—past the existing two years—for a total contract value of $258 million over eight years. As readers in this space know, the total value is a fictitious number as, unlike NBA and Major League Baseball deals, NFL contracts are not fully guaranteed. But Allen’s deal appears to be a strong one, with $100 million fully guaranteed at signing—a key metric for these extensions—and a portion of that guarantee extending even into Year 4, another strong feature for Allen. Allen also has another $50 million of “rolling guarantees” that vest easily next year and the year after. It is a strong player deal, but it also has a distinct advantage for the Bills: its length.
As I wrote last summer, I believe the Mahomes deal is very team-friendly, locking up the league’s best young player for essentially the rest of his career. There would never be even the threat of free agency for Mahomes and, as I often say, . Similarly, the Bills now have Allen under contract through 2028, from ages 25 through 32, the prime of Allen’s career. Allen will have no leverage with free agency until the end of the decade at the earliest.
Whither Mayfield and Jackson?
They have been eligible for extensions since the end of the 2020 season. There have been reports of negotiations, potential deadlines for talks, etc., but nothing has happened. And with Allen now setting the market, this would not appear to be too complicated.
One thought is that perhaps the Browns and Ravens don’t really want to do extensions with their star quarterbacks; at least not right nowMaybe they are cowed by the case studies of Carson Wentz and Jared Goff, who received massive extensions after their third years with the Eagles and Rams only to have those contracts traded, leaving disastrous cap consequences in their wake. Perhaps the Browns and Ravens are negotiating knowing if they don’t get a deal done, that is fine. It is not like these players are going anywhere; they have another contract year and then a team option. Other top quarterbacks had to wait until past their fourth season, including Andrew Luck.
Also, from a , waiting is not a bad option. Not only do we have a reduced cap this year, but the old trope about fear of injury should not force any ascending young quarterbacks into signing;. We now have Exhibit A for that scenario: Dak Prescott A gruesome injury in a contract year did nothing to reduce his value; rather, that value only went up. That should be a lesson for Mayfield and Jackson.
With Allen’s deal now complete, will the Mayfield and Jackson deals get done? Well, deadlines spur action and perhaps one or both will get done before the deadline of the start of the season. However, I can see reasons to wait for both sides. As I have learned the hard way in the past,
