NFL bettors don’t appear eager to back the Dolphins against the Bills, even though there seems to be value in the 12 points Miami is getting at most sportsbooks for Thursday night’s road matchup.
Usually, the sharps don’t hesitate to take the points on the team the public is betting heavily against, but that might no longer be a wise strategy with how frequently the favorites have covered this season. Oddsmakers are being forced to adjust lines against favorites because laying less than a touchdown is starting to look like gold for the public.
“Not a lot of people are running to the window to take the points with the Dolphins,” says Joey Feazel, head of football trading at Caesars Sportsbook. “It’s been a one-way action even at that premium number of 12 where it does seem a bit inflated.”
The winless Dolphins have played poorly, but the offense showed signs of life in last week’s 33–27 loss against the Patriots. With such a high number and a strong possibility of a backdoor cover, it’s a bit surprising that there isn't more support for a team that has a decent offense with Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane.
Then again, it’s probably best to avoid this one until more dogs cover in games this season. Last week, the Ravens easily covered as 12.5-point favorites vs. the Browns. And it’s not a coincidence that your office survivor pool likely still has a high amount of entries compared to other seasons at this point.
“We’ve seen it in recent weeks,” Feazel says. “The favorites have definitely come through, so I’m definitely not blaming anyone there for wanting to lay a little extra juice. These favorites have been coming in very easily in the past year and a half.”
With more insight from Feazel, here’s everything else you need to know before the NFL Week 3 games.
Sharps vs. Public NFL Week 3
As expected, the public hasn’t hesitated to lay the 7.5 points in favor of the Packers, who are on the road Sunday vs. the Browns. But unlike with the Dolphins, the sharps are showing strong support for Cleveland and its feisty defense, which contained Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 1.
At Caesars Sportsbook, the line for this game opened at 9 points before the sharps got the oddsmakers to shave off the point and a half, which again, might be looking like gold for the public and their favorite favorites.
“The Packers are going to get heavy public money,” Feazel says.
There’s also a strong possibility that Chargers-Broncos turns into a Pros vs. Joe’s matchup. No team has gotten as much support as the Packers have in the past month, but there could soon be a surge in money backing the Chargers if they continue to play as well as they have the past two weeks.
The sharps have gotten burned by the Broncos to start the season, but Feazel doesn’t view this being the week they completely give up on Bo Nix & Co. As of Wednesday, the Chargers were laying three points at home vs. the Broncos, who lost as road favorites in Indianapolis last week.
“You’re going to start seeing the sharps attacking that number once it gets to three,” Feazel says.
There’s also a chance that the sharps back the Giants (+6) at home against the Chiefs if the line increases to seven points before kick off. Feazel is expecting strong public support for the Chiefs, but he’s unsure whether the sharps have enough confidence in the Giants after the Week 2 shootout vs. the Cowboys.
Biggest Liabilities NFL Week 3
For the Monday night showdown between the Ravens and Lions, Feazel mentioned that his sportsbook might need what he referred to as a Super Bowl middle, meaning they’re rooting for Baltimore to win but not to cover the 4.5 points.
With both these teams being public favorites, there’s a sense that many bettors are going to take the Lions on the moneyline (+196) while many others will lay the points for the Ravens at home.
As of Wednesday, Feazel didn’t view Packers-Browns to be a liability game, but it might turn into that if money continues to pour in favor of Green Bay.
Odds Movement NFL Week 3
The oddsmakers were busier than usual this week with all the injuries to starting quarterbacks.
The Vikings were favored by 1.5 points at home against the Bengals before Sunday’s games started last week. That ballooned to 5.5 points after Burrow injured his toe vs. the Jaguars, but the line went down to 3.5 points following J.J. McCarthy’s disastrous performance vs. the Falcons. The line moved once more to Vikings -3 after coach Kevin O’Connell announced that backup Carson Wentz would be filling in for the injured McCarthy.
Jake Browning managed to move the ball against Jacksonville after stepping in for the injured Burrow, but Cincy’s poor offensive line could have trouble vs. a ferocious Minnesota defense, which explains why this line has the home team as the favorite for this complex matchup of backup QBs.
The Commanders went from six-point favorites at home vs. the Raiders to laying only 3.5 points because of the injury to Jayden Daniels and the possibility of Marcus Mariota starting in his place Sunday.
Big Bets on the Rams
Surprisingly, it’s been one-way action for the Eagles hosting the Rams and it’s not in support of the defending Super Bowl champions. Many are backing Los Angeles and taking the hook on the +3.5 points.
“I’ve seen a lot of Rams action come in,” Feazel says. “A majority of Rams action, both public and sharper action. The narrative is the Eagles are 2–0, but haven’t looked that dominant offensively. … People remember last year’s playoff game when the Rams kept it close against the Eagles.”
Manzano’s NFL Week 3 Betting Tips
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Buck the trend: Chargers (-2.5) vs. the Broncos
I can’t follow the sharps here. The Broncos haven’t looked good, while the Chargers have been dominant on both sides of the ball. There’s no stopping this L.A. team when Justin Herbert plays at the level he’s played the past two weeks, especially behind a dominant defense.
Enticing Bet: Cardinals (+2.5) at 49ers
It’s time for the Cardinals to make me look good after I boldly predicted them to win the NFC West this year. There might be some value here, too, with Arizona possibly facing Mac Jones instead of Brock Purdy.
Don’t let the narratives fool you. Yes, the Cardinals allowed the Panthers to make it a game last week, but so did the 49ers against the Saints.
Moneyline Dog: Rams (+152) at Eagles
I can see Matthew Stafford playing keep away with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams for long drives that keeps Saquon Barkley off the field. The only way to stop the tush push is by keeping the Eagles’ offense on the sideline.
SuperDog: Browns (+8.5) vs. Packers
I’m going with the sharps here. Cleveland’s tough defense could give Jordan Love some fits and Green Bay will be without wide receiver Jayden Reed. Also, Myles Garrett seems to be very angry after the loss to the Ravens.
Not So Risky: Falcons (-5.5) at Panthers
This Falcons’ defense is the real deal. They pummeled McCarthy and the Vikings and will probably do the same to Bryce Young and the Panthers. There’s nothing physical about this Panthers’ squad, which has to deal with Bijan Robinson.
Stay Away: Raiders (+3.5) at Commanders
The Raiders might get Mariota instead of Daniels, but it’s hard trusting the Silver and Black with how poorly they played against the Chargers on Monday night. I get that Washington’s defense isn’t as good as the Chargers’ unit, but there’s still a chance Daniels plays. I’m staying away from this one.
Parlay: Colts (-4.5) at Titans, Bears (+1.5) vs. Cowboys, Buccaneers (-7) vs. Jets
I hate parlays. Anyway, I’ll take another shot here. I usually don’t back heavy favorites, but the numbers don’t lie. They’re covering at a high rate.
Favorite Fave: Vikings (-3) vs. Bengals
The Vikings’ defense is going to smother Browning and his poor offensive line. Maybe Wentz does something by leaning heavily on Justin Jefferson.
Best Over/Under Total: Cowboys-Bears (over 50.5, -112)
The Cowboys can’t play defense, but they can score points in a hurry. They could light up a Bears defense that allowed 52 points to the Lions last week. Also, Caleb Williams managed to score 21 points in the loss.
