The home stretch of the NBA season is here. There are just two weeks of games left before the play-in tournament, and the playoff push in the Western Conference is going to be extremely exciting to watch over the coming days.
On Monday, there are several games that impact the playoff – and play-in– picture out West:
Boston Celtics vs. Memphis GrizzliesHouston Rockets vs. Los Angeles LakersSacramento Kings vs. Indiana PacersBrooklyn Nets vs. Dallas Mavericks
I’m eyeing a few bets on Monday, including picks for the Pacers-Kings and Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro.
Let’s break down each of the plays for Monday’s action.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date2024-25 season record: 199-190-4 (-0.20 units)OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1209-1135-26 (+37.89 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
Indiana Pacers-Dallas Mavericks Moneyline Parlay (-135) – 0.5 unitTyler Herro OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-140) – 0.5 unitIndiana Pacers-Dallas Mavericks Moneyline Parlay (-135) – 0.5 unit
There are two teams that I think will win on Monday night, so why not turn them into a parlay?
Indiana Pacers
There’s a lot of reasons to like the Pacers on Monday night at home.
So far this season, Indiana is 24-11 straight up at home and over .500 against the spread when set as a home favorite. Meanwhile, the Kings (9-9 against the spread as road underdogs) have dropped seven of their last 10 games and are two games under .500 on the road overall.
Over each of these teams’ last 10 games, there is a huge discrepancy in where they rank. The Pacers (7-3) are eighth in the NBA in net rating – ranking 10th in offense and 11th in defense.
Sacramento, on the other hand, is 24th in net rating – ranking 21st in offense and 29th in defense.
The No. 29 defense number is extremely concerning against an Indiana team that loves to push the pace and has one of the better offensive units in the league. With Tyrese Haliburton also dishing out assists at a high rate (11.3 per game over his last 15 games), the Pacers should have no problem attacking this Kings squad.
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks have yet to lose a game with Anthony Davis in the lineup, and I don’t see them losing one on Monday against this tanking Brooklyn Nets squad.
The Mavs – with Davis – beat the Nets by 19 points last Monday, and Brooklyn has been reeling as of late, losing 16 of its last 20 games. On top of that, the Nets have slipped to 25th in the NBA in net rating (-9.7) over their last 10 games.
With Davis back in the lineup, the Mavs have a higher ceiling on both ends of the floor, and it appears Daniel Gafford (probable) and Dereck Lively II (questionable) both could play in this game as well.
Dallas has an inside track to the No. 9 seed – especially with Kevin Durant going down with an ankle injury for the Phoenix Suns on Sunday night.
I’m buying the Mavs to win this matchup.
Tyler Herro OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-140) – 0.5 unit
Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro has a great matchup on Monday night, as the Washington Wizards rank 27th in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers made per game and 26th in opponent 3-point percentage.
Herro knocked down three of his five attempts from deep the last time these teams played, and he’s also found his stroke from deep, making four or more 3-pointers in three games in a row.
With Miami fighting for the No. 9 seed in the Eastern Conference, I expect it to lean heavily on Herro against a tanking Washington team.
